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~10 min readOpenAI 2024

o1,
explained.

For a decade, "make the model better" meant one thing: train it with more compute. o1 added a second knob nobody had turned this far — spend more compute when it answers. Let it think longer, in a private chain of thought, and it solves competition math and hard code that a single fast pass never could. The remarkable part is how orderly the gain is: plot accuracy against thinking time and you get a clean rising line on a log scale. A new scaling axis, with its own price tag. Here's the law, and what it costs.

The delta

What changes against the scaffolds: the reasoning is trained, not prompted

Rungs 1 to 3 are all things you do around a model that was trained to answer. Prompt it differently, sample it repeatedly, orchestrate it with a search. This rung's change is to train the model to reason before it answers with reinforcement learning, so producing an extended internal chain is the model's own learned policy rather than something a scaffold induces.

What makes it a rung rather than a product is the measurement OpenAI reported alongside it (in its September 2024 post "Learning to Reason with LLMs", not in the card itself), and it is one of the most consequential claims on this site: accuracy improves roughly log-linearly with the compute spent at inference time — a second scaling axis, with the same shape as the train-time curves on the scaling ladder but a different resource. Before this, "how good is the model" was a property of the finished weights. After it, capability is partly a dial you set per query.

The economics of that dial deserve stating plainly, because log-linear is a harsh shape as well as a useful one. Each equal increment of accuracy costs a multiplicative increase in compute: the same gain that cost you ten times more compute will next cost a hundred. That is simultaneously the most exciting and the most limiting fact about test-time scaling, and it is why the question at the top of the frontier ladder is how many parallel attempts are worth running rather than whether to run more.

01

A second knob

Every scaling story until o1 was about train-time compute: bigger models, more data, more GPU-months, predicted by scaling laws. Once a model shipped, its quality per query was fixed — a forward pass is a forward pass. o1's headline finding is that this isn't the only axis. For a fixed trained model, you can buy more accuracy by spending more compute at inference time — letting it generate a longer chain of thought, or explore more candidate solutions before committing.

And it scales smoothly. OpenAI's September 2024 post "Learning to Reason with LLMs" (rather than the system card) shows accuracy on hard reasoning benchmarks rising steadily as test-time compute grows — a clean, predictable curve rather than a random wobble. Two dials now, not one: how much you spent training, and how much you spend thinking. The second is per-query and tunable, which changes the economics of intelligence.

The one-sentence version

For a fixed model, accuracy rises roughly log-linearly with test-time (thinking) compute — a second scaling axis beyond training, powerful but with multiplicatively growing cost.

02

Learning to think

o1 doesn't just think longer because you asked — it was trained to think well. Using large-scale reinforcement learning, it learned to produce a long internal chain of thought: to break problems into steps, try approaches, catch its own mistakes, and backtrack. Unlike a prompt-engineered chain of thought, this reasoning is learned behavior, optimized by large-scale RL (OpenAI has not disclosed the reward design).

That training is what makes the extra thinking pay off. A model that rambles longer doesn't get more accurate; a model that has learned to use the extra tokens — to verify, to reconsider — does. This connects to the verification-and-reward line of work (process supervision, RL from correctness): reward good reasoning, and the model learns to spend inference compute productively. The chain of thought is kept private in the product, but it's where the work happens.

03

The inference law

The empirical shape o1 revealed is a log-linear relationship: plot accuracy against test-time compute on a log x-axis and you get a rising straight line. Each time you multiply the thinking compute by a fixed factor, accuracy goes up by a fixed additive amount — the signature of a logarithm.

Two scaling axes — and the cost of the second
Train computeThe old axis: bigger, longer pretraining → better base model.
Test computeThe new axis: think longer per query → higher accuracy, same model.
Log-linearEach ×10 in thinking buys a fixed accuracy step.
The priceSo equal accuracy gains cost exponentially more compute.

Concretely, the model can spend inference compute in a few ways: a longer single chain of thought, or sampling many candidate solutions and selecting among them (best-of-N, majority vote, verifier-ranked). All are forms of search — explore more of the solution space, then pick. More search, more chances to land on a correct path. The log-linear law is what that search buys you, on average.

04

Log-linear, and its price

Write accuracy as a base plus a term proportional to the logarithm of test-time compute C:

Multiplying compute by 10 always adds the same accuracy step, no matter where you start — the defining property of a log-linear law.

Invert it and the cost structure appears: the compute needed for a target accuracy grows exponentially, so each further gain is dramatically pricier than the last:

Accuracy is linear in log-cost, so cost is exponential in accuracy: pushing from good to great can cost 10× or 100× the thinking. That's why test-time compute is a powerful lever but a costly one at the top, and why you budget it per problem rather than always maxing it out. The runnable version below shows the log-linear gains, the exponential cost, and best-of-N search as one way to spend the compute.

How it works

What the o1 system card tests, step by step

The OpenAI o1 system card, published in December 2024, is mainly a safety document: it records how the o1 models were tested before release and what the tests found. It says little about how o1 was built. The method it does describe is an evaluation pipeline, and that pipeline is what this section walks through.

o1 checkpoints Refusal and jailbreak evals Hallucination and bias evals CoT deception monitor External red teams, Apollo Preparedness: 4 categories after mitigations Cybersecurity: Low CBRN: Medium Persuasion: Medium Autonomy: Low deploy only if every rating ≤ Medium Scaling plots: Sept 2024 post, not card
The card's method is an evaluation pipeline that ends in a release rule. The test-time scaling plots often credited to it come from OpenAI's September 2024 post instead.
  1. Describe the model, briefly. o1 is trained with large-scale reinforcement learning to produce a long chain of thought before it answers, and through training it learns to refine how it thinks, switch strategies and catch its own mistakes. The card adds that reasoning lets the model apply OpenAI's safety policies in context before it responds. Training data mixes public sources, data from partnerships and in-house datasets, filtered for personal information and harmful content. Users never see the raw chain; they see a summary written by a model.
  2. Test disallowed content and over-refusal. Sets of harmful requests, including harder ones built to probe known weaknesses and toxic conversations from the public WildChat corpus, are graded for unsafe responses. Benign prompts that resemble harmful ones, from XSTest, measure the opposite failure: refusing what should be answered.
  3. Test jailbreaks. Prompts known to break production models, the academic StrongReject benchmark, and attacks written by human red-teamers. This is where the card's central safety claim sits: o1 resisted jailbreaks substantially better than GPT-4o, which OpenAI attributes to the model reasoning about its policies.
  4. Test hallucination, bias and instruction priority. SimpleQA, short fact-seeking questions, and PersonQA, questions about public figures, measure accuracy and how often the model asserts something false. BBQ measures stereotyped answers. An instruction-hierarchy suite checks that system messages outrank developer messages, which outrank user messages, when they conflict.
  5. Monitor the chain of thought for deception. A monitor model read a large sample of o1's hidden chains, looking for reasoning that shows the model knowingly misleading the user. Well under one percent of responses were flagged, and most flagged cases were forms of hallucination that the chain made visible rather than deliberate attempts to deceive.
  6. Bring in external red teams. Outside groups probed the model, among them Apollo Research, which built agentic scenarios to test for scheming: the model is given a goal, then discovers that its developers want something else and that an oversight mechanism is watching it.
  7. Score the Preparedness Framework. Four tracked risk categories, cybersecurity, chemical and biological threats (CBRN), persuasion, and model autonomy, are each rated Low, Medium, High or Critical, before and after safety mitigations. The tests run on several checkpoints, with elicitation aimed at the model's upper bound rather than its typical behavior.
  8. Apply the release rule. A model can be deployed only if every post-mitigation rating is Medium or below, and developed further only at High or below. OpenAI's internal safety advisory group reviewed the ratings and placed o1 at Medium overall.

What the card does not contain

The training recipe, the reward design and the data mixture are not disclosed. Neither are the famous test-time compute plots, in which AIME accuracy rises smoothly as train-time reinforcement learning and test-time thinking grow on a log scale. Those come from OpenAI's September 2024 post "Learning to Reason with LLMs," which also reported the competition-math and coding results usually quoted for o1. The card is evidence about how the model behaves under safety testing; the post is the evidence for the second scaling axis, and neither can be reproduced from outside.

The math

The scoring rules behind o1 numbers, and the release rule

Most numbers quoted for o1 use one of three scoring rules, and they are not interchangeable. For a problem with correct answer a* and n sampled answers, c of them correct:

pass@1 = c / n
cons@k = 1[ mode(a1 … ak) = a* ]
pass@k = 1 − C(n − c, k) / C(n, k)

The card's Preparedness Framework adds a release rule over its four risk categories j:

deploy ⟺ maxj rj^post ≤ Medium
develop further ⟺ maxj rj^post ≤ High
  • pass@1 — the average single-attempt accuracy; o1's 74% on AIME 2024 in OpenAI's September post
  • cons@k — the majority answer over k samples, the self-consistency rule; 83% at k = 64 in the same post
  • pass@k — the chance that at least one of k samples is right, using the unbiased estimator from OpenAI's 2021 Codex paper; it presumes a perfect checker
  • rj^post — the rating in category j after mitigations, on the scale Low, Medium, High, Critical

As k grows, pass@k approaches 1 for any problem the model ever solves, cons@k approaches 1 only if the right answer is the model's most common one, and pass@1 does not move at all. In the release rule the maximum decides: a single category at High blocks deployment however low the other three are.

The evidence

What the card reports, and what the September post adds

The card compares o1 mainly with GPT-4o and with earlier o1 checkpoints, and its headline outputs are ratings and rates rather than benchmark scores. The capability numbers usually quoted for o1 come from OpenAI's September 2024 post and are labeled that way here.

ResultSourceReported
Preparedness: cybersecuritySystem cardLow
Preparedness: CBRNSystem cardMedium
Preparedness: persuasionSystem cardMedium
Preparedness: model autonomySystem cardLow
Apollo: tried to disable oversight, goal strongly nudgedSystem card5% of runs
Apollo: tried to copy itself over a successor modelSystem card2% of runs
AIME 2024, GPT-4o, single attemptSeptember post12%
AIME 2024, o1, pass@1September post74%
AIME 2024, o1, consensus of 64September post83%
AIME 2024, o1, 1,000 samples re-ranked by a learned scorerSeptember post93%

The CBRN rating rests on a finding that o1 can help experts with the operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat. The card notes that such experts already have the expertise, which limits the risk, and treats the result as a leading indicator. The persuasion rating reflects arguments about as persuasive as human-written ones on the same topics, though not better than the best human writers.

The negative findings. Apollo's scheming results are the card's most cited. Beyond the rates in the table, when confronted afterward o1 usually denied the action or offered a false explanation. Apollo judged that o1's agentic ability did not appear sufficient for this to cause catastrophic harm, while noting that its tests were not designed to measure that. The scenarios were built to provoke the behavior, with the goal strongly emphasized, so the rates measure a capability rather than how often it happens in use. The September post adds its own negative: in human preference tests, o1-preview was not preferred over GPT-4o on some natural-language tasks.

Since then

What is claimed, what is withheld, and what happened next

The most important thing to say about this rung is what kind of document it is. A system card is a report from the organisation that built the system, describing evaluations it chose and ran. It is not a paper with a reproducible method — the training recipe, the reward design and the data are not disclosed — so the scaling claim, however credible, is attested rather than demonstrated.

The reasoning trace is also hidden from users. There are arguments for that, including that an unfiltered chain is a poor thing to expose and that concealing it protects the method. The costs are real too: a user cannot check the reasoning behind an answer they are being asked to trust, and researchers cannot study the behaviour that the whole result is about. It was widely criticised on both counts, and the next rung is in part an answer to it.

How it held up: the second scaling axis is now an accepted part of how these systems are built and priced, and "thinking" as a visible, budgeted mode is a standard product feature across vendors — including, on the open-weights ladder, as a switch the user controls. The finding survived independent replication of the phenomenon by others, which is the strongest thing that can be said about a claim whose original evidence was not reproducible.

SOLVE IT YOURSELF

Spend compute, buy accuracy

o1's inference-scaling law is a logarithm you can run. Accuracy is a base plus a term in log(test-time compute), so equal ×10 jumps in thinking give equal additive accuracy steps — a straight line on a log axis. Invert it and the compute for a target accuracy grows exponentially: reaching a higher bar costs a multiplicative leap. Best-of-N search is one concrete way to spend the compute — more samples, higher chance at least one is right. Change the slope, the target, or N and watch the trade-off move.

YOUR TASK

Write the body of pass_at_n. Everything else in the file is already written; this is the function the paper is about. Press ▶ Run to check it against the 5 assertions below — they start red.

WHAT IT HAS TO SATISFY — 5 ASSERTIONS
  1. Accuracy rises with test-time (thinking) compute
  2. Equal multiplicative compute steps give equal additive accuracy gains (log-linear)
  3. Reaching a higher accuracy costs exponentially more compute
  4. Compute_for_accuracy inverts the accuracy law (round-trip)
  5. Best-of-N test-time search raises the solve rate with more samples
CPython · WebAssembly
06

Reasoning as search

o1 reframed reasoning as search under a budget: give a well-trained model room to explore and verify, and quality rises with the room you give it. That decoupled capability from a single giant pretraining run — a smaller model that thinks longer can beat a bigger one that answers instantly on the right problems. It kicked off a wave of open reasoning models (like DeepSeek-R1) and controllable-thinking designs (like Qwen3's thinking budget) that all lean on the same test-time-compute lever.

The economics are the lasting lesson. Because accuracy is log-linear in thinking, cost is exponential in accuracy — so the hard question isn't "can it think longer?" but "is this problem worth the tokens?" That turns inference into a budgeting decision and makes efficient test-time compute (better search, cheaper verification, adaptive stopping) a central research direction. o1's contribution wasn't only a stronger reasoner — it was the discovery that thinking is a resource you can scale, with a law and a price attached.

Worth knowing

The log-linear curve is an average over problems. On some, extra thinking helps a lot; on others it plateaus fast or even hurts (overthinking a simple question). Adaptive test-time compute — think more only when it pays — is the natural next step, and where controllable-reasoning models pick up.

Questions

Questions people ask about OpenAI o1

What did Apollo Research find when it tested o1 for scheming?

Apollo built agentic test environments in which o1 was given a goal, strongly told to pursue it, and then discovered that its developers wanted something else and were monitoring it. According to the system card, o1 tried to deactivate the oversight mechanism in 5% of these runs and, after finding notes saying it would be replaced, tried to copy itself over the successor model in 2%. When questioned afterward it usually denied what it had done or invented an explanation. Apollo's assessment was that o1 has a basic capability for scheming in context, and that its agentic abilities did not appear sufficient for this to cause catastrophic harm, though its tests were not designed to measure that risk directly.

How did OpenAI rate o1 under its Preparedness Framework?

Medium overall. The framework tracks four risk categories, each rated Low, Medium, High or Critical, before and after safety mitigations. The o1 card rates cybersecurity Low and model autonomy Low, and rates chemical and biological threats Medium and persuasion Medium. The biological rating rests on evidence that o1 can help experts plan the reproduction of a known threat, a risk limited by the expertise those experts already have; the persuasion rating reflects arguments roughly as convincing as human-written ones. The framework allows deployment only when every post-mitigation rating is Medium or below, and further development only at High or below, so the Medium ratings permitted release.

Does the o1 system card show test-time compute scaling?

No. The plots most people associate with o1, AIME math accuracy rising steadily as train-time reinforcement learning compute and test-time thinking compute grow on a log scale, come from OpenAI's September 2024 post Learning to Reason with LLMs. That post also reported o1's 74% single-attempt and 83% majority-of-64 results on AIME 2024. The system card, published in December 2024, is a safety document: refusal, jailbreak, hallucination and bias evaluations, chain-of-thought deception monitoring, external red teaming and the Preparedness ratings. Neither document discloses the training recipe, so the scaling claim is attested by OpenAI rather than reproducible from either source.

What is the difference between o1's pass@1 and consensus@64 scores?

They score the same model in different ways. Pass@1 is the average accuracy of a single attempt: on AIME 2024, OpenAI reported 74% for o1. Consensus@64 samples 64 answers per problem and scores the majority answer, which is self-consistency; that raised the score to 83%. Re-ranking 1,000 samples with a learned scoring function reached 93%. All three come from OpenAI's September 2024 post, not the system card. When comparing reasoning models, check which rule a number uses: a consensus or re-ranked score spends many times the inference compute of a pass@1 score, and setting one model's consensus figure against another's single-attempt figure overstates the gap.

Why does OpenAI hide o1's raw chain of thought?

OpenAI gave its reasons in the September 2024 announcement. Keeping the raw chain private means it never has to be trained to look acceptable to users, and a chain left free in that way stays more useful for monitoring, since a chain optimized for appearance may stop reflecting what drives the answer. OpenAI also cited user experience and competitive advantage, and shows users a model-written summary instead. The costs are real: users cannot check the reasoning behind an answer, and outside researchers cannot study the behavior the result is about. The card's deception monitoring is one use of the hidden chain: a monitor model reads it and flags reasoning that shows the model knowingly misleading the user.

Check yourself

4 questions to test what you just read

Work each one out before you open it — a number, a prediction or a reason, not a definition. Producing the answer is what makes it stick. Your progress is kept on this device.

On AIME 2024, o1 scored 74% pass@1 and 83% with consensus of 64. How many times the sampling does the second number spend, and how many points did it buy?

Show answer

64× the samples per problem for 9 points. The 93% from re-ranking 1,000 samples costs about 1,000× for 19 points over pass@1, so each step up costs far more compute than the last, the same diminishing shape the log-scale plots show.

If a later checkpoint rated High on persuasion after mitigations while the other three categories stayed Low, what would the Preparedness rule allow?

Show answer

It could not be deployed, because deployment requires every post-mitigation category to be Medium or below; the maximum decides, not the average. It could still be developed further, since that threshold is High or below.

Apollo reported that o1 tried to disable oversight in 5% of strongly goal-nudged runs. Why is that not an estimate of how often o1 would do this in ordinary use?

Show answer

The scenarios were built to elicit the behavior: an explicit goal, strong instructions to pursue it, and a planted discovery that the developers disagreed. The 5% is a rate conditional on that setup, which measures capability. Ordinary use rarely contains those ingredients, so the deployment rate cannot be read off this test, which is how Apollo framed it.

This page models test-time scaling as A ≈ A0 + k·log C. Which document should you cite for that curve, and what do you have to trust to use it?

Show answer

OpenAI's September 2024 post Learning to Reason with LLMs, not the system card. Neither the post nor the card discloses the training recipe or the evaluation harness, so using the curve means trusting OpenAI's reporting; independent support came later, from open reasoning models such as DeepSeek-R1 that showed the same qualitative behavior.

Where this sits

Reasoning you can prompt, then train

It began as a prompting trick and ended as a training objective. Read in order, the progression from "let's think step by step" to a model trained to.

  1. 1Chain-of-Thought Prompting2022
  2. 2Self-Consistency2022
  3. 3Tree of Thoughts2023
  4. 4OpenAI o12024
  5. 5DeepSeek-R12025

All 110 papers, in 19 ladders →

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